Economics
Economics Benchmarks 2022 – executive summary
Key findings of the 2022 report, including model choices, governance structures and data use
Economics Benchmarks 2022 report – evolving models
Central banks continued to develop their modelling frameworks in 2022, as some longer-term trends in governance structures and research agendas emerged from the data
China needs dollar reserves to bolster renminbi – Eichengreen
Authorities must reassure global markets to make renminbi reserve currency, paper argues
ECB paper examines effects of real rates on banks’ fragility
Level of real interest rates determines whether price or scale effects predominates, researchers find
Proportionality in bank regulation: striking the right balance
The ‘final’ Basel III framework contains elements designed to make the rules fairer while reducing regulatory arbitrage. This means careful analysis is required when making any proportionality adjustments in the EU single rule book, writes Maurizio…
Book notes: A monetary and fiscal history of the United States, 1961–2021, by Alan Blinder
The book’s breakthrough is its infusion of the history of fiscal policy into a theoretical framework traditionally focused on monetary instruments. It is a splendid and thrilling read
Housing plays growing role in transmitting ECB policy, paper finds
Labour earnings still most important means of transmission, researchers say
Armenia’s Galstyan calls for a new framework to tackle uncertainty and nonlinearities
Central Bank of Armenia governor says central banks can start to regain credibility by admitting their mistakes. This could include employing a risk-management approach to monetary policy aimed at avoiding nonlinear ‘dark corners’ and placing much less…
Austan Goolsbee will be next Chicago Fed president
Former Obama adviser will succeed Evans and become voting FOMC member in 2023
Chile’s Costa on tackling inflation, forex interventions and nowcasting
The Central Bank of Chile governor speaks about stubbornly high prices, Fed policy spillovers, reserve buffers, retail CBDC and the need to address unconscious bias
ECB paper presents new corporate default prediction method
Authors say their “distance to insolvency” measure outperforms other forecasting methods
Das outlines RBI’s post-Covid research reforms
Central bank has adopted “full information” system to capture economic dynamics
Carstens wins major Spanish economics prize
King of Spain award praises BIS president’s work in Mexico and globally
Climate change may have serious effects on natural rate – ECB paper
Monetary policy may need more flexibility to deal with climate and green transition, researchers say
Last-minute moves shake up IDB race
Mexico replaces candidate, Argentina joins race
Book notes: Yellen, by Jon Hilsenrath
This book offers new insights into the tough decisions and tremendous efforts Yellen has made as a pre-eminent economic policy-maker
ERM’s 1992 crisis offers lessons for today, academics say
Barry Eichengreen, Maurice Obstfeld and Richard Portes discussed “accident waiting to happen”
Christopher Sims on modelling the inflation surge
Unprecedented series of shocks creates major challenges for central bank forecasters, the Nobel Prize-winning economist tells Daniel Hinge
Nominal interest rates strongly affect savings – ECB paper
Simple models based on real rates do not accord with eurozone data, researchers find
Bernanke, Diamond and Dybvig win Nobel Prize
Economics prize goes to authors of widely cited work on financial crises
Central Bank of Kenya raises rate and denies FX shortage
New president nominates former governor Ndung’u to become finance minister
Expectations are key to carbon tax’s impact, says ECB paper
Inflation may rise if consumers doubt government’s commitment to raise green taxes, research finds
Bundesbank vice-president calls for shift to ‘carbon accounting’
Proper calculation of carbon costs will mean firms disclosing private data, Claudia Buch says
People: July to September 2022
A round-up of central bankers in the news and on the move during the past three months